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[Epistemic status: Not original to me. Also, I might be getting it wrong. ] A lot of responses to my Friday post on overconfidence centered around this idea that we shouldnt, we cant, use probability at all in the absence of a well-defined model. The best we can do is say that we dont know. It's been rather a long time since I posted on poker about luck blog, almost 18 months, and in truth I haven't really been active for about 3 years.
I don't have an especially good reason for the absence except that I'm a fairly busy person, and the time I don't spend either playing poker or studying poker I try and spend with my wife and two children.
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